Somehow, I think a lot of people will be listening to Nora Jones' election lament come Wednesday. I'm just not sure if they'll be red or blue-blooded.

I'm always skeptical about the authenticity of these alleged insider posts from disaffected Obama campaign insiders, although everything in it sounds plausible. I do tend to think that the polls are extremely unreliable this time for a number of reasons: the Bradley Effect, the PUMAs, the oversampling of Democrats, the potential that blue-collar union workers are being less than honest about who they're voting for, and the reluctance of some demographics to talk to pollsters.

We'll find out on Tuesday. I still think we may be in for a shocker.

I don't buy it, mostly because it's too pat, but also because no insider refers to their own means of spreading spin as "misinformation networks." This is particularly true of lefty groups, and Obama's campaign qualifies, who learned from their drubbings during the Cold War what you could and couldn't say without losing support.

I will say this. I have always voted early. I voted this morning. I have attempted to do this three times this week but the LINES WERE TOO LONG. I got at the poll this morning at 6:30 and I was 50th in line. The republicans are turning out big time. I think the base is energized and that is what tipped it in 2004. Too close to call. That is for sure. ww

Here's a post from Hillbuzz that talks about "Three Things the Obamamedia will do to suppress Republican turnout and help Obama."

It's very good and we see it unfolding now.

http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/31/three-things-the-obamedia-will-do-to-depress-republican-turnout-and-help-obama/

As far as I'm concerned, the true "Bradley Effect" is the fictitious lead given to all Democrats in the polls in order to manipulate public opinion. It has nothing to do with race.

80% refusing to respond is not abnormal for telephone surveys. When I design a sample for a phone survey, I have to assume that at least three quarters of people contacted will not complete the interview, and most will simply hang up (politely or otherwise).

Not sure this person knows all that much about this sort of research...

Talk about a Banana Republic, people are afraid to even voice who they favor if it's not Obama (D-ACORN).

No wonder guns sales are booming (no pun intended).

I thought the Bradley Effect pertained to people no voting for the black candidate.

What I see here is the Thuggery Effect.

I live in OH and pollsters called me twice and I hung the phone on them.
BTW, I am for McCain. So this article must be true, thank god,

80% "refuse to responds" wouldn't be a problem as long as that percentage is relatively equal across different demographics and party affiliations, but it almost certainly isn't. For example, if some age groups are less likely to respond than other age groups that will skew the poll toward the preference of the age group that is more likely to respond. The same thing is true if Democrats are more likely to respond than Republicans.

The polls sponsored by news organizations like CBS and the New York Times really seem to be out of whack with other poll organizations. It's no secret how conservatives feel about the media so I'm wondering if the pollsters identify the sponsors of the poll up front. Telling a conservative that you're polling for a CBS/New York Times poll seems like a good way to insure a hang-up.

"Not sure this person knows all that much about this sort of research..."

The fact is, most people don't know that the non-reply rate is so high. So mentioning it doesn't mean she doesn't know. Only that it's pertinent and should be taken into consideration.

The part of that section that I would argue with is when she says "people are afraid to let people know who they are voting for." I don't think they're afriad. I think they're annoyed and figure it's no one's business. I've heard too many times that people complain about the wording of the questions and the caller has even gone so far as to argue with the recipient of the call. These days I just don't answer unknown calls because I resent the prying nature.

I have, in the past, answered such calls and if it was automated, I'd go so far as to listen to the first question. If I didn't like it, then I hung up. If it was a live person, I hung up right away.

Colorado is a toss up? Gee, I bet McCain feels like a real jackass for pulling out.

Does any other site have the full post (not just a link to it)?

Attempts to access ANYTHING from Red State time out. No response from their server. This seems to have been happening all day today.

Colorado is a toss up? Gee, I bet McCain feels like a real jackass for pulling out.

Yeah, this post ended up nailing it.