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Pop quiz: What significant quality relevant to opinion polls do the presidential elections of 1936, 1948, 1968, 1976, 1980, 1988, 1992, and 2000 all have in common?
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2008 Presidential Race
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Comments (36)
The candidate ahead one mon... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Jeff | October 10, 2008 5:22 PM | Score: 7 (7 votes cast)
The candidate ahead one month out in the polls ended up losing?
1. Posted by Jeff | October 10, 2008 5:22 PM |
Score: 7 (7 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 17:22
2. Posted by Dave W | October 10, 2008 5:25 PM | Score: 7 (7 votes cast)
Democrats are always ahead by huge majorities this far out.
2. Posted by Dave W | October 10, 2008 5:25 PM |
Score: 7 (7 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 17:25
3. Posted by DJ Drummond | October 10, 2008 5:27 PM | Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
let's see who figures it out first ...
3. Posted by DJ Drummond | October 10, 2008 5:27 PM |
Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 17:27
4. Posted by Mark Ducharme
| October 10, 2008 5:28 PM | Score: 5 (7 votes cast)
They were all GOP blowouts 'til ACORN went to work.
Please to define: "significant quality relevant to opinion polls"
4. Posted by Mark Ducharme
| October 10, 2008 5:28 PM |
Score: 5 (7 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 17:28
5. Posted by DJ Drummond | October 10, 2008 5:39 PM | Score: 4 (6 votes cast)
Howdy, 'quitter'! Gettin' your place all ready for your accepted Obamnian overlords?
5. Posted by DJ Drummond | October 10, 2008 5:39 PM |
Score: 4 (6 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 17:39
6. Posted by Mark Ducharme
| October 10, 2008 5:41 PM | Score: 3 (5 votes cast)
HEIL BARRY! ZIEK HEIL!
6. Posted by Mark Ducharme
| October 10, 2008 5:41 PM |
Score: 3 (5 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 17:41
7. Posted by DJ Drummond | October 10, 2008 5:43 PM | Score: 4 (6 votes cast)
IMpressive.
;->
7. Posted by DJ Drummond | October 10, 2008 5:43 PM |
Score: 4 (6 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 17:43
8. Posted by squidgrunt | October 10, 2008 5:43 PM | Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
In each of these elections, the results predicted by polls either late in the summer or at the time of the election were significantly incorrect.
courtesy of http://stolenthunder.blogspot.com/
8. Posted by squidgrunt | October 10, 2008 5:43 PM |
Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 17:43
9. Posted by Mark Ducharme
| October 10, 2008 5:47 PM | Score: 1 (3 votes cast)
Okay DJ, it can now be told, I'm currently being fitted for my new "Obama 08 Electronic Collar & ACORN voter assistance unit".
Now, can you be more specific as to what a "significant quality relevant to opinion polls" is? Or does it depend on what the meaning of the word "to", is?
9. Posted by Mark Ducharme
| October 10, 2008 5:47 PM |
Score: 1 (3 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 17:47
10. Posted by MPR | October 10, 2008 5:51 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
squidgrunt#8 cheated. He is right.
10. Posted by MPR | October 10, 2008 5:51 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 17:51
11. Posted by LaMedusa | October 10, 2008 5:53 PM | Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
Aw, no fair. You went right to the answer. I was going to look for something like "incorrect" media polls, swayed public influence toward the public. Also, Obama is a "newcomer" like Carter, which a long with the economic perils, is bringing more dems to the polls. There are a lot of articles as well as individuals saying that the votes are riding on the indepedents.
11. Posted by LaMedusa | October 10, 2008 5:53 PM |
Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 17:53
12. Posted by LaMedusa | October 10, 2008 5:56 PM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
dang, I meant *swayed public influence toward the new guy.
12. Posted by LaMedusa | October 10, 2008 5:56 PM |
Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 17:56
13. Posted by Tom Blogical
| October 10, 2008 5:57 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
"Howdy, 'quitter'! Gettin' your place all ready for your accepted Obamnian overlords?"
I, for one, welcome our new Obamnian overlords. OK no, not really. But I think the polls are probably right this time. Please let me be wrong.
Give it up DJ. The gig is up. squidgrunt sold you out.
13. Posted by Tom Blogical
| October 10, 2008 5:57 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 17:57
14. Posted by DJ Drummond | October 10, 2008 6:01 PM | Score: 4 (6 votes cast)
Let not your heart be troubled Tom, nor trust in polls, at least reading only the headlines.
The voting is yet to happen, and there is cause for hope, perhaps even confidence.
14. Posted by DJ Drummond | October 10, 2008 6:01 PM |
Score: 4 (6 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 18:01
15. Posted by Jeff | October 10, 2008 6:04 PM | Score: 6 (6 votes cast)
where can I get my "racist" button to wear after the election ?
15. Posted by Jeff | October 10, 2008 6:04 PM |
Score: 6 (6 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 18:04
16. Posted by ExSubNuke | October 10, 2008 6:04 PM | Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
Oh, I dunno, DJ. I'm not so troubled by McCain's poll numbers, but I AM troubled by his performance in both of those debates. That's his BEST chance to get out to "the people" without a media filter... and it sure looks to me like he's BLOWING those chances.
There's still about a month to go though... so there's time... but he needs to start makin' his move soon, or, just like "Mighty Casey"... he'll strike out.
16. Posted by ExSubNuke | October 10, 2008 6:04 PM |
Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 18:04
17. Posted by Mark | October 10, 2008 6:07 PM | Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
where can I get my "racist" button to wear after the election ?
Haha. We're all racist anyways, don't you listen to the "news?"
17. Posted by Mark | October 10, 2008 6:07 PM |
Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 18:07
18. Posted by Tom Blogical
| October 10, 2008 6:09 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
"Let not your heart be troubled Tom, nor trust in polls, at least reading only the headlines."
I'll try, but I read RealClearPolitics...from the looks of it they're all way off or they're all spot on.
18. Posted by Tom Blogical
| October 10, 2008 6:09 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 18:09
19. Posted by Justrand
| October 10, 2008 6:14 PM | Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
new Gallup Poll just released...
Obama: 100%
McCain: 0%
Gallup official Ima Maroon indicated: "This is the first time a candidate outside Veneazuela has won so much of the support of a nation."
When questioned about the fact that the poll results would indicate that Senator McCain is apparently not even voting for himself, Ms. Maroon replied: "Yes, that surprised us too"
...developing...
19. Posted by Justrand
| October 10, 2008 6:14 PM |
Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 18:14
20. Posted by tola | October 10, 2008 6:15 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
RNC just launched new site obamaacorntree.com
20. Posted by tola | October 10, 2008 6:15 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 18:15
21. Posted by chas | October 10, 2008 6:51 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
They all oversampled democrats by large margins.
21. Posted by chas | October 10, 2008 6:51 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 18:51
22. Posted by Mycroft | October 10, 2008 7:39 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Got our absentie ballors today and I was giving my Registered Democratic Neighbor a hard time about one race. He either has to not vote, vote Republican, or write in some vote. His first choice was Ralph Nader, but that doesn't fly, because Ralph is already on the Presidential ballot.
But, as a Registered Dem, he indicated that he will not vote for either John McCain or Obama! He will pick one of the other 11 candidates or write someone in. How many others are doing the same?
22. Posted by Mycroft | October 10, 2008 7:39 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 19:39
23. Posted by yihdego | October 10, 2008 8:57 PM | Score: -7 (7 votes cast)
Lol, i'm sorry since when did voter fraud become republican mantra? You guys are really good at this, stealing talking points and using them for yourselves. Obama wants to change Washington and now McCain is the candidate of change. Minorities are being intimidated, unfairly being disqualified and you guys right the computers. Yet Obama is the cheater. Bush is America's worst offender of the Constitution, expanding the executive branch's power unnaturally, so how is it that Obama is turning us into a socialist nation? Bailout and McCain's housing plans are capitalist under who's logic?
haha I still love this blog, learn a lot and those polls are... interesting to say the least.
23. Posted by yihdego | October 10, 2008 8:57 PM |
Score: -7 (7 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 20:57
24. Posted by Tom Blogical
| October 10, 2008 9:13 PM | Score: 6 (6 votes cast)
"Lol, i'm sorry since when did voter fraud become republican mantra?"
Mantra? No. Is it a fact that ACORN and La Raza are leading voter fraud in many states? Yep. You betcha, gosh darn it. Don't think so? A federal judge in Ohio does, for one example:
Like I said, that's just one example. Maybe you should do a 5 minutes of research and read the news. You'll find Democrats behind a lot of voter fraud. If you're willing to open your eyes, get your fingers out of your ears, and stop screaming "La, La, La!!!" that is.
24. Posted by Tom Blogical
| October 10, 2008 9:13 PM |
Score: 6 (6 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 21:13
25. Posted by Justrand
| October 10, 2008 10:12 PM | Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
Abraham Lincoln, January 27, 1838
"At what point shall we expect the approach of danger? By what means shall we fortify against it? Shall we expect some transatlantic military giant to step the ocean and crush us at a blow? Never! All the armies of Europe, Asia, and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth in their military chests; with a Buonaparte for a commander, could not by force take a drink from the Ohio, or make a track on the Blue Ridge, in the trial of a thousand years.
At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we ourselves must be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide."
25. Posted by Justrand
| October 10, 2008 10:12 PM |
Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 22:12
26. Posted by Tom Blogical
| October 10, 2008 10:16 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Justrand:
Thanks a lot. As if I couldn't get any more depressed. ;-)
26. Posted by Tom Blogical
| October 10, 2008 10:16 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 22:16
27. Posted by Justrand
| October 10, 2008 10:27 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Tom Blogical, maybe this'll help:
Josey Wales: "Now remember, things look bad and it looks like you're not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean. I mean plumb, mad-dog mean. 'Cause if you lose your head and you give up then you neither live nor win. That's just the way it is."
prepare, my friend...and get "mad-dog mean" when the time comes...'cause it is comin'
27. Posted by Justrand
| October 10, 2008 10:27 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 22:27
28. Posted by Tom Blogical
| October 10, 2008 10:36 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
I've been through an entire range of emotions today. I don't have the energy to get mean, so I'm gonna get DRUNK. I rarely do it, but I had a look at my 401k today.
Cheers.
28. Posted by Tom Blogical
| October 10, 2008 10:36 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 22:36
29. Posted by Phil | October 10, 2008 11:00 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
What is the basis for optimism. I really need to hear that now.
29. Posted by Phil | October 10, 2008 11:00 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 23:00
30. Posted by Justrand
| October 10, 2008 11:22 PM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Phil: "What is the basis for optimism. I really need to hear that now."
pre-Nov 4...the basis is that the MSM is lying thru its collective teeth and/or supressing SO MUCH about Obama that even they may not be able to contain it. If that damn bursts...and especially if McCain HELPS it burst, the American people will indeed wake up. WE can help wake them up!
post-Nov 4 (if the Messiah-in-Chief becomes King)...the basis is our history of not liking a tyrant's boot on our neck! In this case it will be THREE "boots": Obama-Pelosi-Reid. The American people will eventually WAKE UP!
unless...the Dems push thru the "Fairness Doctrine". THAT changes the post-Nov 4 picture, since the Dems will use it to silence ALL opposition ala Hugo Chavez. If that is the case then the best advice is: stock and arm up...and keep your powder dry!
Semper Fi
30. Posted by Justrand
| October 10, 2008 11:22 PM |
Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 23:22
31. Posted by Tom Blogical
| October 10, 2008 11:32 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Here's another possible reason for optimism. But probably not before the election.
31. Posted by Tom Blogical
| October 10, 2008 11:32 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on October 10, 2008 23:32
32. Posted by Alan Orfi | October 11, 2008 2:30 AM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Your unfailing optimism is appreciated, Mr. Drummond, but the stark reality is that the Republican nominee is trying to fight socialism with liberalism. Hopefully conservatives will learn from this debacle and come together in 2012 to nominate a real candidate.
32. Posted by Alan Orfi | October 11, 2008 2:30 AM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on October 11, 2008 02:30
33. Posted by Cockroach | October 11, 2008 2:57 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
The winner was ahead double digits in 2 RealClearPolitics polls at this late stage in the election.
33. Posted by Cockroach | October 11, 2008 2:57 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 11, 2008 02:57
34. Posted by maggie | October 11, 2008 10:30 AM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Tom,
Until pollsters can go to each polled individual,
and can verify they have answered the poll truthfully I wouldn't put as much as a pinch salt
on what they've told the pollster.
Plus how many have answered truthfully only to
change their minds as they go to pull the lever
on their vote.
34. Posted by maggie | October 11, 2008 10:30 AM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 11, 2008 10:30
35. Posted by Tom Blogical
| October 11, 2008 10:59 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
maggie:
I'm with you. There are more factors than just polling on my mind this election season though. Creeping socialism, McCain's bumbling and stumbling, election fraud by ACORN and La Raza, etc., etc.
35. Posted by Tom Blogical
| October 11, 2008 10:59 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 11, 2008 10:59
36. Posted by Mark Ducharme
| October 11, 2008 12:54 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
If McCain wins with a final polling showing Obama ahead, it will be LA 1992 all over again. Creep thugs like James Carvelle are already advocating for it. Now there's a reason to keep your "powder dry".
possible scenario: McCain wins / riots abound / for the sake of "unity" and "bi-partisanship", good ol' Senator McAmnesty suggests that Obama be "co-Prez" if that's what it takes to calm the poor, disappointed, murdering savages.
36. Posted by Mark Ducharme
| October 11, 2008 12:54 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 11, 2008 12:54