Well, John Forbes Kerry says he won't be running for president in 2008. Ignore his stated reasons; they're just fluff designed to stroke his ego. Here are the real reasons:
1) Kerry's current term in the Senate expires in 2008. Kerry, above all, fears being a nobody. He married one wealthy heiress and rode her money into the Senate. They divorced, and he found an even wealthier woman to marry -- the widow of another Senator. It was her money that let him run in 2004.
If Kerry were to run for president, it would not technically prohibit him from also running for re-election. The filing deadline for his Senate seat is well after several of the early primaries and caucuses. But practically speaking, it would be pretty difficult for him to run for both. His fellow Massachusetts Democrats stood by silently while he essentially blew off his Senatorial duties while he ran, but there is no way in hell they would let him keep a "reservation" on his seat while he sought the presidency again. Especially since Massachusetts will be losing one -- if not two -- seats in the House. Kerry and Kennedy have kept a cap on the upward aspirations of Massachusetts Democrats for 22 years; that will not last forever.
2) Kerry actually does have a few realists on his staff. Everyone (except Kerry) accepts that his only shot was in 2004, and he blew that one. The "anyone but Bush" movement was almost enough to push him over the top, but in the end his essential empty-suitness doomed him.
3) The field of Democrats will be far more competitive this time around. In 2004, Hillary Clinton was stuck keeping her campaign promise of 2000, when she said she would serve a full 6-year term in the Senate. She also wanted a little more time to pass from her husband's administration, hoping that people's tendency to romanticize the past would diminish the negatives and accentuate the positives. Those factors won't apply as much in 2008. There's also Barack Obama, who more than matches Kerry's "empty suit" factor. Toss in the other "also rans," and there just isn't room for a guy who's already shown he can fail on a national level.
But don't count out John Kerry just yet. After all, just because he said he won't run doesn't mean he's out of the picture. His flip-flops are the stuff of legend.
In the end, he could change his mind. "I actually did say I wouldn't run, before I said I would run."
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Comments (13)
There's always a possibilit... (Below threshold)1. Posted by jpm100 | January 25, 2007 7:24 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
There's always a possibility to re-enter. I mean he can sit out the early campaigning, wait for the Soldier's "botched joke" thing to blow over, and wait to reassess as the herd to thins.
1. Posted by jpm100 | January 25, 2007 7:24 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on January 25, 2007 07:24
2. Posted by DaveD | January 25, 2007 8:30 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I don't know. I really gotta count him out. When you look at the other ""hopefuls" I don't see anything that makes Kerry a remotely attractive choice to anyone.
2. Posted by DaveD | January 25, 2007 8:30 AM |
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Posted on January 25, 2007 08:30
3. Posted by Steve Crickmore | January 25, 2007 8:59 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Agreed Dave D. There is no chance Kerry could win, and even he must know it now...He couldn´t beat a proven weak administrator ( Bush) presiding over a unpopular war just 2 years ago. Kerry like Bush is perceived as yesterday's man. But there is another veteran "a recovering politician" who is still popular with his party who can't be counted out.
3. Posted by Steve Crickmore | January 25, 2007 8:59 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on January 25, 2007 08:59
4. Posted by epador | January 25, 2007 9:33 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Oooo boy. I can't wait for a Gore candidacy. Mmmmm mmmmm good!
4. Posted by epador | January 25, 2007 9:33 AM |
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Posted on January 25, 2007 09:33
5. Posted by aRepukelican | January 25, 2007 10:18 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Jay
"Everyone.... accepts that his only shot was in 2004, and he blew that one. The "anyone but Bush" movement was almost enough to push him over the top, but in the end his essential empty-suitness doomed him."
Yes, in 2004, the "empty-suit" as you call him, lost and instead, in the words of H.L. Mencken, "As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."
5. Posted by aRepukelican | January 25, 2007 10:18 AM |
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Posted on January 25, 2007 10:18
6. Posted by Aaron B. Hockley | January 25, 2007 10:18 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
As already noted, he could still enter the field. I can see it now: "First I was against running for president, before I was for it."
6. Posted by Aaron B. Hockley | January 25, 2007 10:18 AM |
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Posted on January 25, 2007 10:18
7. Posted by jhow66 | January 25, 2007 12:04 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
"puke face" is this H.L. your daddy? Sounds about as dumb as you do.
7. Posted by jhow66 | January 25, 2007 12:04 PM |
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Posted on January 25, 2007 12:04
8. Posted by jp2 | January 25, 2007 12:58 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
You've never heard of Mencken?
8. Posted by jp2 | January 25, 2007 12:58 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on January 25, 2007 12:58
9. Posted by aRepukelican | January 25, 2007 1:25 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
jhow66 aka Felch
When Mencken said, "On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron." he was referring to people just like you.
Mencken was a visionary.
9. Posted by aRepukelican | January 25, 2007 1:25 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on January 25, 2007 13:25
10. Posted by Chris | January 25, 2007 2:45 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I agree that Kerry was wise to drop out. It's interesting how you can't resist relying on tired right wing talking points, though. Kerry could only run because his wife was a zillionaire? Then how does that explain all of the people who enter the presidential race evey election? Are they all zillionaires, too?
10. Posted by Chris | January 25, 2007 2:45 PM |
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Posted on January 25, 2007 14:45
11. Posted by SCSIwuzzy | January 25, 2007 7:21 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Chris, I'll bite
Do you honestly think John Kerry could have been a serious contender, let alone the nominee, if he didn't have his wife's bank roll behind him?
IMO, Kerry made it to the big game because most of his opponents in the primary were permanent also-rans/side shows like Sharpton and Kuccinch (however he spells it) or they self destructed like Howard Dean.
When the dust cleared, Kerry and his wife's wallet seemed a better choice than the rest. Then he started talking...
11. Posted by SCSIwuzzy | January 25, 2007 7:21 PM |
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Posted on January 25, 2007 19:21
12. Posted by MikeSC | January 26, 2007 6:14 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
You are aware that Mencken thought FDR was a moron, right?
-=Mike
12. Posted by MikeSC | January 26, 2007 6:14 PM |
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Posted on January 26, 2007 18:14
13. Posted by ken | January 26, 2007 7:07 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Your comparison of an empty suit to Kerry is an insult to suits everywhere.
13. Posted by ken | January 26, 2007 7:07 PM |
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Posted on January 26, 2007 19:07